With the European Central Bank rate decision on the table, as expected rates were increased last Thursday by 0.25 basis points to a five year highs at 3.50%, market now awaits Tuesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Will it change the short term course of US dollar events? Very unlikely. Euro is actually positioning to climb further, at least until the end of December, and possibly reach the highs at 1.3670 touched on December 2004.
ollowing latest comments by Mr. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve should either not touch interest rates at current level of 5.25%, nor substantially change its economic view. Actually, last week labour market report provides no reason for the Fed to move interest rates. While the average pace of job increase has slowed, the unemployment rate of 4.5% in November is at the lowest level of the last 5 ?years and supports the opinion that consumer spending could slow down but not stop completely. Then, the housing market is still correcting, jobs fell by 29.000 units in November, but latest data shows that it is still vital in some areas. Since February, the employment in the residential construction speciality trades has decreased by 109.000 units, but the non residential construction speciality trades have climbed. Last, the progressive increase of hourly earnings, +0.2% in November with an year-over-year increase of 4.1%, testifies that the risk of an inflation rate’s jump above 3% is actual.

If Thursday’s ECB rate decision was largely anticipated due to some predictable language by Mr. Trichet, future timing for a new rate increase appears more nebulous. At the press conference, Mr. Trichet adopted a slightly softer tone, avoiding to make any clear comment on the euro and the yen. He simply repeated that G7 disorderly movements were not desirable. He was optimistic about the economy and consistent on rates. But, he made clear that it would be wrong to assume ECB would rise rates in February of 2007. With all the options still open, what will the next ECB move be? In the recent past, Mr. Trichet underlined the importance of monetary indicators in deciding ECB policy. Healthy economic growth in Europe and the sustained high growth rates in money supply and credit are possibly keeping ECB on the tightening course in the first part of 2007. Inflation is still a risk, despite recent interventions, considering the important liquidity created in the Euro zone.

Choosing Your Forex Broker....Important Facts

Article By David McLauchlan


The best advice I can give to is to conduct yourself like a boss interviewing a potential employee. This employee will be making major decision on your financial future (or lack there of) and therefore it is of most importance that you ask the right questions. This decision cannot be taken lightly as must be well thought out. I would interview (more like grill) at least 5 potential Brokers before picking the final two.


When choosing a forex broker there are many factors to take into account.

- Trust

- Experience

- References from past clients

- Level of success

- Amount of advice to be given

- Convenience

- Amount of margin offered

- Speed

All of the above are of course important. In any financial transaction it is important to trust the broker you work with. This trust is garnered by the experience level the broker has. Of course there are some new brokers starting out who are quite trustworthy, but most people would rather work with an experienced broker. For that reason most new brokers attach themselves to a firm where they can be mentored and gain experience.

References from past clients are important. If your broker has helped someone else is successful in the past and that person is willing to speak up for him that says a lot. You can gage the level of success your broker has had by speaking with past clients and seeing how well they did working with this broker. Next, take a look at the amount of advice your broker is willing to give you. Of course, you make your own decisions and will never take another person’s word for everything, but it is good to have knowledge to work with, and advice from an experienced broker is key information to factor in. Convenience is also impotent. If you live in California then an Ohio broker might not be the best choice. But in the age of the internet that factor has become less relevant. With fax and email where you and your broker live has become less important.

The amount of margin offered is important. Margin is used to leverage your money. A broker who gives you a 50 to one margin is more valuable than one who gives you 20 to one. And of course speed. Is your broker quick? Does he return phone calls and emails promptly? If so, perhaps you can work with him.

Your broker will b a trusted advisor and someone that you may be working with for years to come so choose the relationship carefully. Ask friends and acquaintances who are active in forex trading what broker they use and how they met. It is quite possible that you can get a referral from a friend or acquaintance you trust and acquire a good forex broker that way.

Another good way to find a forex broker is to go online. There are message forums, chat rooms, and email groups through portals like Yahoo, Google and MSN that contain a wealth of information. Getting onto one of these online communities and asking other people for advice is the way that many people found their broker. If a broker has several clients in an online community who are happy with what he has accomplished for them, then that is a good indication that you might be happy with him as well. Take advantage of the number of people who are on the internet and join some of these online communities. Ask question and you’ll probably learn a great deal from the experiences that other people have had. Also find trade journals, magazines and ezines to subscribe to. Read as much as you can about the subject of forex trading before going into it. Become a smart shopper and smarter trader.

Finding a good forex broker is a job in itself. When you visit with a forex broker you are in essence conducting an employment interview to determine if this is the broker you wish to handle your financial affairs, so be thorough. Ask plenty of questions. Ask for references. Don’t be shy. Also check with other people in the office of the broker and see if you would trust them to fill in for your broker if he were not available. And, see if the broker is willing to offer you a demo account to use to get in some practice before you actually make an investment. If the broker is able to do so and encourages you then it means that the broker wants educated clients and is not just out for the quick buck. See what kind of training and tutoring the broker is willing to offer. A good broker will offer to answer your questions and help you through the learning process.

The Forex Market and Its Three Distinctive Elements

Category: Forex Education
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Contributor: david mclauchlan





Article Body
by David McLauhlan

Although there are many distinctive elements of the Forex market, there are three that can be highlighted as helping new traders learn exactly what the foreign exchange market is all about. These distinctive elements are those that every new trader should know long before they make their first trade. The Forex system is one that is made to encompass the entire globe. It can be difficult to interpret and even more difficult to successfully trade within. The first step to being a successful trader is knowing how the system works. Before you even think about opening a Forex account, be sure that you are familiar with the foreign exchange market’s three distinctive elements: geographical, functional, and participant.

Geographical

The Forex is a huge market that encompasses the entire globe. This is a market that spans from North America to Europe, to China, and back. There is no area it doesn’t touch which makes the market so popular. There is simply something for everyone within the Forex market. Its easy 24 hour a day access makes it even more attractive for investors. No matter what time of day you want to trade, there will be someone trading in some distant location around the world. Although there is trading in the Forex in every corner of the globe, the major exchanges are Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Bahrain, London, New York, San Francisco, and Sydney. The geographical element of the foreign exchange market can help new traders realize the size and volume of the Forex. It is simply unmatched in volume and size making it a powerful tool for investors everywhere.

Functional

The entire Forex market functions to transfer purchasing power between countries. When trades are made, partners are converting currency revenues into their domestic currency. When one country’s purchasing power is strong, another country’s purchasing power may be weaker. The Forex market also functions to obtain and provide credit for international trade and to avoid an exchange rate disaster. When it comes to international trade, the Forex is helpful because it helps the movement of goods between countries and offers credit for financing.

Participant

There are two main parts to the foreign exchange market. The first part is the interbank, which is often called the wholesale market. The second part is the client, which is often called the retail market. In these two categories are approximately five different types of participants. The first type of participant being the bank and non-bank foreign exchange dealers who buy at bid prices and sell at asking prices. This helps the efficiency of the market as a whole. An interesting thing to note is that by trading currencies, banks often make up to 20% of their profits.

The second type of participants is made up of individuals, and commercial and investment firms. This group consists of importers, exporters, tourists, and other portfolio investors. They use the market to help them invest. These are often the participants who use the Forex to hedge, which is a way to reduce their risk.

The third group type that seeks to profit from the foreign exchange market are s speculators and arbitragers. These people are out to make money for themselves. They are acting in their own self-interest. They seek profitable rate changes in order to help them profit and try to profit with the least possible risk involved. Large banks are sometimes a part of this group.

Also involved in the Froex are central banks and treasuries. They use it to change the value of their own currency, or to at least attempt to do so. This is something that they do with reserves. Their motive is not to profit but to influence the market. They want the value of their domestic currency to benefit their interests.

Foreign exchange brokers are the last of the five groups involved in the participant element of the Forex. These participants are those who facilitate trading but are not partners in the transaction. They typically charge a fee for their service, which is most often on a commission scale. They are often seen as go betweens for large traders.

FOREX is call foriegn exchange market is nothing but dealing in currencies.Foreign Exchange market is the largest financial market in the world, with an volume of more than $1.5 trillion daily.Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location, no central exchange. The foreign exchange (currency or forex or FX) market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. It is by far the largest market in the world, in terms of cash value traded, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, multinational corporations, governments, and other financial markets and institutions through an electronic network.According to Peter Garnham from the Financial Times website (Published: October 9 2006 20:48) " The foreign exchange market will have doubled in size in just three years next year, thanks to increased participation by fund managers and pension funds.

The Forex, or foreign currency exchange, is all about money. Money from all over the world is bought, sold and traded. On the Forex, anyone can buy and sell currency and with possibly come out ahead in the end. When dealing with the foreign currency exchange, it is possible to buy the currency of one country, sell it and make a profit. For example, a broker might buy a Japanese yen when the yen to dollar ratio increases, then sell the yens and buy back American dollars for a profit.